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Ireland and Scotland: converging or diverging demography?

Lisenkova, K. and Mosca, I. and Wright, R.E. (2008) Ireland and Scotland: converging or diverging demography? Scottish Affairs, 64. pp. 18-36. ISSN 0966-0356

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This paper compares past, current and possible future demographic trends in Scotland and Ireland. Past changes in the three main demographic variables -fertility, mortality and net-migration -are reviewed. A set of population projections are carried out based on different assumptions relating to future levels of net-migration. These projections provide a quantitative description of possible future changes in population size and share of different age/sex groups. These projections are used as a backdrop to consider policies that could be pursued aimed at lessening the negative consequences associated with population decline and population ageing. Particular attention is paid to the role of the labour market.