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Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Lisenkova, Katya and McGregor, P.G. and Pappas, N. and Swales, J.K. and Turner, K. and Wright, R.E. (2007) Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland: a computable general equilibrium analysis. Discussion paper. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Germany.

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Abstract

This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.

Item type: Monograph (Discussion paper)
ID code: 7269
Keywords: regional CGE modelling, ageing population, migration, regional policy, Commerce
Subjects: Social Sciences > Commerce
Department: Strathclyde Business School > Economics
Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
Date Deposited: 03 Dec 2008 13:33
Last modified: 18 Jun 2015 04:00
Related URLs:
URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/7269

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