Picture of person typing on laptop with programming code visible on the laptop screen

World class computing and information science research at Strathclyde...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde's Open Access research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by University of Strathclyde researchers, including by researchers from the Department of Computer & Information Sciences involved in mathematically structured programming, similarity and metric search, computer security, software systems, combinatronics and digital health.

The Department also includes the iSchool Research Group, which performs leading research into socio-technical phenomena and topics such as information retrieval and information seeking behaviour.

Explore

Risk assessment due to local demand forecast uncertainty in the competitive supply industry

Lo, K.L. and Wu, Y. (2003) Risk assessment due to local demand forecast uncertainty in the competitive supply industry. IEE Proceedings Generation Transmission and Distribution, 150 (5). pp. 573-582. ISSN 1350-2360

Full text not available in this repository. Request a copy from the Strathclyde author

Abstract

A risk assessment on local demand forecast uncertainty is presented. The aim is to highlight high-risk periods over different lengths of time and daily value-at-risk (VAR) due to load forecast errors. A number of load forecasts have been performed, and the load forecast is based on ARIMA models and ANN structures. With the residuals from load forecasting, the risk indexes over different time periods and seasons are formed. Moreover, a new methodology using the standard deviation of load increment on evaluating the risk is proposed. In contrast with the standard forecasting method that relies on a sophisticated forecast procedure, the new approach provides a useful and fast method to evaluate the risk due to load forecast uncertainty for a variety of local demand profiles. Finally, the VAR methodology combined with the NETA system is applied to a local electricity supplier in the UK.