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Bayesian analysis of endogenous delay threshold models

Koop, G.M. and Potter, S. (2003) Bayesian analysis of endogenous delay threshold models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21 (1). pp. 93-103. ISSN 0735-0015

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We develop Bayesian methods of analysis for a new class of threshold autoregressive models: endogenous delay threshold. We apply our methods to the commonly used sunspot data set and find strong evidence in favor of the Endogenous Delay Threshold Autoregressive (EDTAR) model over linear and traditional threshold autoregressions.