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The basic reproduction number and the vaccination coverage required to eliminate Rubella from England and Wales

Sfikas, N. and Greenhalgh, D. and Lewis, F. (2007) The basic reproduction number and the vaccination coverage required to eliminate Rubella from England and Wales. Mathematical Population Studies, 14 (1). pp. 3-29. ISSN 0889-8480

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Abstract

Bootstrapping is used to estimate the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies for rubella in England and Wales. It is assumed that rubella infection follows the deterministic age-structured model discussed by Dietz and Schenzle (1985). The bootstrap is used to estimate percentile confidence intervals for the basic reproductive number and the minimum elimination proportions under one and two stage vaccination campaigns for rubella. The results of differing mixing assumptions and the effects of kernel smoothing are also considered. Previous estimates of the basic reproduction number and minimum elimination vaccination proportions for rubella and similar diseases are discussed and the results compared with those of the article. For homogeneous mixing only, the estimates are much lower than previous estimates. For more realistic symmetric mixing a worse 'reasonable' vaccination coverage estimate of around 87% of children as young as possible is needed to eliminate rubella in England and Wales.

Item type: Article
ID code: 6890
Keywords: basic reproduction number, bootstrap, immunization, minimum elimination vaccination strategy, mixing, rubella, Probabilities. Mathematical statistics, Immunology, Microbiology, Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all), Demography, Geography, Planning and Development
Subjects: Science > Mathematics > Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Science > Microbiology > Immunology
Science > Microbiology
Department: Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
    Date Deposited: 01 Sep 2008
    Last modified: 04 Sep 2014 17:59
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/6890

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