Picture of athlete cycling

Open Access research with a real impact on health...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde's Open Access research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by Strathclyde researchers, including by researchers from the Physical Activity for Health Group based within the School of Psychological Sciences & Health. Research here seeks to better understand how and why physical activity improves health, gain a better understanding of the amount, intensity, and type of physical activity needed for health benefits, and evaluate the effect of interventions to promote physical activity.

Explore open research content by Physical Activity for Health...

Cluster-based regime-switching AR for the EEM 2017 Wind Power Forecasting Competition

Browell, Jethro and Gilbert, Ciaran P (2017) Cluster-based regime-switching AR for the EEM 2017 Wind Power Forecasting Competition. In: 2017 14th International Conference on the European Electricity Market Conference (EEM). IEEE, Piscataway. ISBN 9781509054992 (In Press)

Text (Browell-Gilbert-EEM-2017-Cluster-based-regime-switching-AR-for-the-EEM-2017-Wind-Power-Forecasting-Competition)
cluster_based_regime_4_.pdf - Accepted Author Manuscript

Download (587kB) | Preview


This paper describes the regime-switching autoregressive models used to win the EEM 2017 Wind Power Forecasting Competition. The competition required participants to produce daily forecast wind power production for a portfolio of wind farms from 2 to 38 hours-ahead based on historic generation and numerical weather prediction analysis data only. The regimes used in the methodology presented are defined on the previous day’s weather conditions using the k-medians clustering algorithm. Cross-validation is used to identify models with the best predictive power from a pool of candidate models. The final methodology produced a final weighted mean absolute error 4.5% lower than the second place team during the two-week competition period.