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Improved dynamic dependability assessment through integration with prognostics

Aizpurua, Jose Ignacio and Catterson, Victoria M. and Papadopoulos, Yiannis and Chiacchio, Ferdinando and Manno, Gabriele (2017) Improved dynamic dependability assessment through integration with prognostics. IEEE Transactions on Reliability. pp. 1-21. ISSN 0018-9529 (In Press)

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Abstract

The use of average data for dependability assessments results in a outdated system-level dependability estimation which can lead to incorrect design decisions. With increasing availability of online data, there is room to improve traditional dependability assessment techniques. Namely, prognostics is an emerging field which provides asset-specific failure information which can be reused to improve the system level failure estimation. This paper presents a framework for prognostics-updated dynamic dependability assessment. The dynamic behaviour comes from runtime updated information, asset inter-dependencies, and time-dependent system behaviour. A case study from the power generation industry is analysed and results confirm the validity of the approach for improved near real-time unavailability estimations.