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EERA-DTOC calculation of scenarios

Schepers, Gerard and Pena, Alfredo and Ely, Alice and Palomares, Ana and Attya, Ayman and Sieros, Giorgos and Giebel, Gregor and Svendsen, Harald and Bastigkeit, Ilona and Karagali, Ioanna and Moya, Ivan and Anaya-Lara, Olimpo and Ledesma, Pablo and Correia, Pedro M. Fernandes and Gomez, Vitar Gosta and He, Wei (2015) EERA-DTOC calculation of scenarios. [Report]

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Abstract

This report describes the calculation of scenarios which have been defined to demonstrate the value of the EERA-DTOC tool. Thereto it should be realized that the value of the EERA-DTOC tool could best be demonstrated by a comparison with measurements but the intended clusters for which the tool is developed are still mainly in the planning phase by which measurements to validate the tool are lacking. However, by the calculation of likely scenarios, the industrial usefulness of the tool can still be tested where moreover an ‘expert view’ on the results will be carried out in order to check their degree of reality. Therefore several scenarios are described which are denoted as the ‘base and the near future scenario’, i.e. scenarios which are still relatively close to the present state of the art wind farm (clusters). This is in particular true for the base scenario which is described as a scenario which reflects ‘the current way of thinking’. The near future scenario goes beyond the current way of thinking by using upscaled turbines. The description of these scenarios is given in D5.2 The base scenario considers a 500MW wind farm which consists of hundred turbines with a rated power of 5 MW at the location where the Race Bank wind farm is planned under the UK Round 2. This farm is planned 27 km from the North Norfolk coast at the Eastern part of England. The Race Bank farm is surrounded by several other wind farms which are either operational or under construction. The turbine which is selected for this farm is the reference turbine from the former EU project Upwind, since this turbine is described in detail in public literature and reflects the current state of the art wind turbine technology. The near future scenario assumes a 1 GW wind farm and is located at the Dogger Bank in the North Sea. It consists of 100 turbines with a rated power of 10 MW. Although 10 MW turbines are not on the market yet the INNWIND.EU reference wind turbine has been selected since a full description of this turbine is available. Moreover a far future scenario is defined which refers to a time line of some 15 year. It consists of large clusters (up to 10 GW) where some of the farms in the cluster are differently sized and contain floating turbines. The far future scenario includes several grid planning options, both for the export to the mainland as for interconnecting wind farms in the cluster. It even includes interconnections with other development zones or even to other countries, combining wind power export and cross-border electricity trade.