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Modelling the effects of variable tariffs on domestic electric load profiles by use of occupant behavior submodels

Fischer, David and Stephen, Bruce and Flunk, Alexander and Kreifels, Niklas and Byskov Lindberg, Karen and Wille-Haussmann, Bernhard and Owens, Edward H. (2016) Modelling the effects of variable tariffs on domestic electric load profiles by use of occupant behavior submodels. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid. ISSN 1949-3053 (In Press)

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Emerging infrastructure for residential meter communication and data processing carries the potential to control household electrical demand within local power system constraints. Deferral of load control can be incentivised through electricity tariff price structure which can in turn reshape a daily load profile. This paper presents a stochastic bottom-up model designed to predict the change in domestic electricity profile invoked by consumer reaction to electricity unit price, with submodels comprising user behaviour, price response and dependency between behaviour and electric demand. The developed models are used to analyse the demand side management potential of the most relevant energy consuming activities through a simulated German household demonstrating that in the given scenario 8% of the annual electricity demand is shifted, leading to a 35e annual saving. However, a 7% higher than average peak load results from the structure of the tariff signal modelled herein. A discussion on selected aspects for tariff design for categories of typical household appliances is included.