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The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde's Open Access research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by University of Strathclyde researchers, including by researchers from the Department of Computer & Information Sciences involved in mathematically structured programming, similarity and metric search, computer security, software systems, combinatronics and digital health.

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Estimating value-at-risk for Chinese stock market by switching regime ARCH model

Ip, W. and Wong, H. and Pan, J. and Yuan, K. (2006) Estimating value-at-risk for Chinese stock market by switching regime ARCH model. Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization, 2 (2). pp. 145-163. ISSN 1547-5816

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Abstract

This paper proposes a method of estimating Value at Risk (VaR) based on the assumption that the financial returns follow a switching regime ARCH model. We use the simple switching-regime model, the traditional GARCH(1,1) model and the switching-regime ARCH model to do some empirical analysis and to calculate the VaR values under different confidence levels for Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Index. The calculated VaR values are com- pared. The results of back-testing and the Proportion of Failure test show the VaR values calculated by the switching-regime ARCH model are preferred to other methods.