Picture of person typing on laptop with programming code visible on the laptop screen

World class computing and information science research at Strathclyde...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde's Open Access research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by University of Strathclyde researchers, including by researchers from the Department of Computer & Information Sciences involved in mathematically structured programming, similarity and metric search, computer security, software systems, combinatronics and digital health.

The Department also includes the iSchool Research Group, which performs leading research into socio-technical phenomena and topics such as information retrieval and information seeking behaviour.


How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution

Siddons, Craig and Allan, Grant and McIntyre, Stuart (2015) How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution. Energy Policy, 87. pp. 224-228. ISSN 0301-4215

[img] Text (Siddons-etal-EP-2015-How-accurate-are-forecasts-of-costs-of-energy)
Siddons_etal_EP_2015_How_accurate_are_forecasts_of_costs_of_energy.pdf - Accepted Author Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 25 September 2017.
License: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 logo

Download (312kB) | Request a copy from the Strathclyde author


Forecasts of the cost of energy are typically presented as point estimates; however forecasts are seldom accurate, which makes it important to understand the uncertainty around these point estimates. The scale of the differences between forecasts and outturns (i.e. contemporary estimates) of costs may have important implications for government decisions on the appropriate form (and level) of support, modelling energy scenarios or industry investment appraisal. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the accuracy of cost forecasts. We apply this to levelised costs of energy for different generation technologies due to the availability of comparable forecasts and contemporary estimates, however the same methodology could be applied to the components of levelised costs, such as capital costs. The estimated “forecast errors” capture the accuracy of previous forecasts and can provide objective bounds to the range around current forecasts for such costs. The results from applying this method are illustrated using publicly available data for on- and off-shore wind, Nuclear and CCGT technologies, revealing the possible scale of “forecast errors” for these technologies.