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Practical application of uncertainty analysis

Macdonald, Iain and Strachan, Paul A. (2001) Practical application of uncertainty analysis. Energy and Buildings, 33 (3). pp. 219-227. ISSN 0378-7788

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Abstract

Uncertainty analysis, based on Differential Sensitivity Analysis and Monte Carlo Analysis, has been used in several research projects in order to estimate reliability of results, especially in empirical validation-based projects where both measured and predicted uncertainty bands need to be evaluated. However, such analyses have been time-consuming, involving either repetitive manual changing of the input parameters followed by a simulation run, or involving the writing of specific programs to automate the process. Their use has, in consequence, been restricted. This paper reviews the sources of uncertainty in the predictions from thermal simulation programs. It then describes how uncertainty analysis has been incorporated into the thermal simulation program ESP-r. An example of its application is given.

Item type: Article
ID code: 5064
Keywords: building simulation, uncertainty analysis, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, Mechanical engineering and machinery, Building and Construction, Civil and Structural Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Subjects: Technology > Mechanical engineering and machinery
Department: Faculty of Engineering > Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
    Date Deposited: 05 Jan 2008
    Last modified: 04 Sep 2014 14:37
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/5064

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