Picture of person typing on laptop with programming code visible on the laptop screen

World class computing and information science research at Strathclyde...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde's Open Access research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by University of Strathclyde researchers, including by researchers from the Department of Computer & Information Sciences involved in mathematically structured programming, similarity and metric search, computer security, software systems, combinatronics and digital health.

The Department also includes the iSchool Research Group, which performs leading research into socio-technical phenomena and topics such as information retrieval and information seeking behaviour.


Prognostic modeling of transformer aging using Bayesian particle filtering

Catterson, Victoria (2014) Prognostic modeling of transformer aging using Bayesian particle filtering. In: 2014 IEEE Conference on Electrical Insulation and Dielectric Phenomena, 2014-10-19 - 2014-10-22.

[img] PDF (Catterson-CEIDP2014-prognostic-modeling-of-transformer-aging)
Catterson_CEIDP2014_prognostic_modeling_of_transformer_aging.pdf - Accepted Author Manuscript

Download (321kB)


The goal of condition monitoring is to accurately assess the current health of an asset, in order to generate a prognosis, i.e. predict its remaining useful life. In the absence of a fault which causes premature failure, transformer degradation is linked to paper aging. Research and experience have resulted in models of paper aging where hotspot temperature is the key driver. However, these deterministic equations give a false sense of certainty about remaining insulation life. This paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian particle filtering for transformer life prognostics. This technique allows quantification of the uncertainties surrounding aspects such as the initial degree of polymerization of the paper, the relationship between hotspot temperature and measurands, and the accuracy of measurements. A case study from an in-service 180 MVA transformer is used to illustrate its potential.