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Systemic risk elicitation : using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks

Ackermann, Fran and Howick, Susan and Quigley, John and Walls, Lesley and Houghton, Tom (2014) Systemic risk elicitation : using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks. European Journal of Operational Research, 238 (1). pp. 290-299. ISSN 0377-2217

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As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research.