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A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter

Hartnett, E. and Kelly, L.A. and Newell, D. and Wooldridge, M. and Gettinby, G. (2001) A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter. Infection and Epidemiology, 127 (2). pp. 195-206. ISSN 0950-2688

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Abstract

A quantitative risk assessment model investigating the risk of human infection with campylobacter from the consumption of chicken meat/products is currently being formulated. Here such an approach is used to evaluate the probability that a random bird, selected at slaughter from Great Britain's national poultry flock, will be campylobacter-positive. This is determined from the probability that a flock chosen at random contains at least one colonized bird and the within-flock prevalence of such a flock at slaughter. The model indicates that the probability bird chosen at random being campylobacter-positive at slaughter is 0.53. This probability value has associated uncertainty, the 5th percentile being 0.51 and the 95th percentile 0.55. The model predicts that delaying the age at first exposure to campylobacter can have a significant impact on reducing the probability of a bird being campylobacter-positive at slaughter. However, implementation of current biosecurity methods makes this difficult to achieve.

Item type: Article
ID code: 4584
Keywords: epidemiology, bacteriosis, infection, risk analysis, chickens, campylobacter, modelling science, statistics, Probabilities. Mathematical statistics, Biology
Subjects: Science > Mathematics > Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Science > Natural history > Biology
Department: Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
    Date Deposited: 05 Nov 2007
    Last modified: 04 Oct 2012 12:01
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/4584

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