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Bayesian belief nets for managing expert judgement and modelling reliability

Sigurdsson, J.H. and Walls, L.A. and Quigley, J.L. (2001) Bayesian belief nets for managing expert judgement and modelling reliability. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 17 (3). pp. 181-190. ISSN 0748-8017

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Abstract

Bayesian belief nets (BBNs) provide an effective way of reasoning under uncertainty. They have a firm mathematical background in probability theory and have been used in a variety of application areas, including reliability. BBNs can provide alternative representations of fault trees and reliability block diagrams. BBNs can be used to incorporate expert judgement formally into the modelling process. It has been claimed BBNs may overcome some of the limitations of standard reliability techniques. This paper presents an overview of BBNs and illustrates their use through a simple tutorial on system reliability modelling. The use of BBNs in reliability to date is reviewed. The challenge of using BBNs in reliability practice is explored and areas of research are identified.

Item type: Article
ID code: 4371
Keywords: bayesian belief nets, expert judgement, reliability modelling, reliability engineering, management science, Management. Industrial Management, Risk Management, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Subjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management
Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Risk Management
Technology > Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
    Date Deposited: 23 Oct 2007
    Last modified: 12 Mar 2012 10:41
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/4371

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