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The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs.

Strathprints serves world leading Open Access research by the University of Strathclyde, including research by the Strathclyde Institute of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences (SIPBS), where research centres such as the Industrial Biotechnology Innovation Centre (IBioIC), the Cancer Research UK Formulation Unit, SeaBioTech and the Centre for Biophotonics are based.

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Expert quantification of uncertainties in a risk analysis for an infrastructure project

Bedford, T.J. and Janssen, M. and Verstegen, C. and Willems, A. (2005) Expert quantification of uncertainties in a risk analysis for an infrastructure project. Journal of Risk Research, 8 (1). pp. 3-17. ISSN 1366-9877

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Abstract

It is shown how calibration methods for expert judgement can be used to establish consensus about the uncertainties involved in a complex project risk analysis, where no consensus was present before. A case study is presented in which a project risk analysis was carried out for a large scale infrastructure project in the Netherlands. This involved the use of new and untried technology to reduce the frequency and scale of dredging operations over the long term by subtly changing the flow in a navigable river. The technology was to be applied at two separate sites. The project risk analysis was needed to identify the cheapest method of carrying out the work under the requirement that the whole project be completed with 95% probability by the year 2005. The decision problem was modelled using an influence diagram, which was quantified by expert judgement and made use of value of information techniques. Cooke's classical method was used to calibrate the experts. This is the first time that this method has been used to carry out a value of information study.