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World class computing and information science research at Strathclyde...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde's Open Access research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by University of Strathclyde researchers, including by researchers from the Department of Computer & Information Sciences involved in mathematically structured programming, similarity and metric search, computer security, software systems, combinatronics and digital health.

The Department also includes the iSchool Research Group, which performs leading research into socio-technical phenomena and topics such as information retrieval and information seeking behaviour.

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Optimal smoothing for trend removal in short term electricity demand forecasting

Infield, David, Hill, D.C. (1998) Optimal smoothing for trend removal in short term electricity demand forecasting. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 13 (3). pp. 1115-1120. ISSN 0885-8950

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Abstract

Changes to the electricity supply industry, in particular the progress towards deregulation, have prompted an increased interest in short-term electricity demand forecasting. Trend removal has been identified as a key element in forecasting, and perhaps the area that can most benefit from the application of advanced time series analysis. A new approach to trend removal is presented based on fixed interval, or optimal, smoothing techiques. Forecasts derived in this way are compared with more conventional approaches. Preliminary results indicate the new method to be promising and deserving of further development.