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Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions

Wilson, Kevin and Farrow, Malcolm (2010) Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 224 (4). pp. 309-321.

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Abstract

Collections of related Poisson or binomial counts arise, for example, from a number of different failures in similar machines or neighbouring time periods. A conventional Bayesian analysis requires a rather indirect prior specification and intensive numerical methods for posterior evaluations. An alternative approach using Bayes linear kinematics in which simple conjugate specifications for individual counts are linked through a Bayes linear belief structure is presented. Intensive numerical methods are not required. The use of transformations of the binomial and Poisson parameters is proposed. The approach is illustrated in two examples, one involving a Poisson count of failures, the other involving a binomial count in an analysis of failure times.

Item type: Article
ID code: 37570
Keywords: linear kinematics, bayesian analysis, bayes linear methods, count data, failure times, Management. Industrial Management, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Subjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management
Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science
Depositing user: Pure Administrator
Date Deposited: 10 Feb 2012 11:47
Last modified: 15 Apr 2015 10:36
URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/37570

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