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Exploring decision makers use of price information in an efficient speculative market

Johnson, Johnnie and Jones, Owen and Tang, Leilei (2006) Exploring decision makers use of price information in an efficient speculative market. Management Science, 52 (6). pp. 897-908. ISSN 0025-1909

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Abstract

We explore the extent to which the decisions of participants in a speculative market effectively account for information contained in prices and price movements. The horse race betting market is an ideal environment to explore these issues. A conditional logit model is constructed to determine winning probabilities based on bookmakers' closing prices and the time-indexed movement of prices to the market close. We incorporate a technique for extracting predictors from price (odds) curves using orthogonal polynomials. The results indicate that closing prices do not fully incorporate market price information, particularly information that is less readily discernable by market participants.

Item type: Article
ID code: 3631
Keywords: decision makers, price information, speculative market, Finance
Subjects: Social Sciences > Finance
Department: Strathclyde Business School > Accounting and Finance
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
    Date Deposited: 04 Jul 2007
    Last modified: 12 Mar 2012 10:39
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/3631

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