Swales, John and Lisenkova, Katerina and McGregor, Peter and Turner, Karen and Wright, Robert (2007) Macroeconomic impact of ageing population in Scotland: a computable general equilibrium analysis. Discussion paper. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
dp2623.pdf - Draft Version
Download (438kB) | Preview
This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.
|Item type:||Monograph (Discussion paper)|
|Keywords:||ageing, labour studies, scotland, migration, ageing population, Social pathology. Social and public welfare|
|Subjects:||Social Sciences > Social pathology. Social and public welfare|
|Department:||Strathclyde Business School > Economics|
|Depositing user:||Pure Administrator|
|Date Deposited:||02 Jun 2011 04:25|
|Last modified:||29 Apr 2016 11:13|