Picture of wind turbine against blue sky

Open Access research with a real impact...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs.

The Energy Systems Research Unit (ESRU) within Strathclyde's Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering is producing Open Access research that can help society deploy and optimise renewable energy systems, such as wind turbine technology.

Explore wind turbine research in Strathprints

Explore all of Strathclyde's Open Access research content

Application of statistical wind models for system impacts

Hill, D. and Mcmillan, D. and Bell, K. and Infield, D. and Ault, G. W. (2010) Application of statistical wind models for system impacts. In: Universities Power Engineering Conference (UPEC), 2009 Proceedings of the 44th International. IEEE. ISBN 978-1-4244-6823-2

Full text not available in this repository. (Request a copy from the Strathclyde author)

Abstract

The UK government has provided an incentive mechanism for renewable electricity that is delivering a significantly increasing penetration of wind power in the electricity supply mix, and this growth is likely to continue in the near to medium term. There is a real and pressing need to assess the impacts of increasing amounts of wind power on the UK power system. Statistical models are presented that characterize the temporal and spatial nature of windspeeds across the UK in a more comprehensive way than hitherto expressed. AutoRegressive Moving Average models (ARMA), often used for predictive purposes on shorter time-scales, are developed to characterize the windspeed field. A detrending method to allow for non-stationarity of the data is presented, developed specifically to model annual trends and a seasonally dependent diurnal effect, noted to be present across sites studied. Vector auto-regressive (VAR) models extend the work by incorporating spatiotemporal correlations between the different sites. Results are presented demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach to wind modelling and synthesis. In future work, these wind synthesis procedures will be used as input to wind and power system time domain modeling with a view to an improved understanding of how a substantial UK wind penetration will impact on grid operation, thus providing a powerful tool for operational and planning purposes.