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Estimating the predicted environmental concentration of the residues of veterinary medicines: should uncertainty and variability be ignored?

Kelly, Louise Anne and Taylor, M.A. and Wooldridge, M.. (2003) Estimating the predicted environmental concentration of the residues of veterinary medicines: should uncertainty and variability be ignored? Risk Analysis, 23 (3). pp. 489-496. ISSN 0272-4332

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Abstract

European directives require that all veterinary medicines be assessed to determine the harmful effects that their use may have on the environment. Fundamental to this assessment is the calculation of the predicted environmental concentration (PEC), which is dependent on the type of drug, its associated treatment characteristics, and the route by which residues enter the environment. Deterministic models for the calculation of the PEC have previously been presented. In this article, the inclusion of variability and uncertainty within such models is introduced. In particular, models for the calculation of the PEC for residues excreted directly onto pasture by grazing animals are considered and comparison of deterministic and stochastic results suggest that uncertainty and variability cannot be ignored.

Item type: Article
ID code: 30352
Keywords: Predicted environmental concentration, uncertainty, variability, Probabilities. Mathematical statistics, Risk Management
Subjects: Science > Mathematics > Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Risk Management
Department: Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
Related URLs:
Depositing user: Pure Administrator
Date Deposited: 19 May 2011 05:15
Last modified: 04 Oct 2012 13:38
URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/30352

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