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The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by University of Strathclyde researchers, including those from the School of Psychological Sciences & Health - but also papers by researchers based within the Faculties of Science, Engineering, Humanities & Social Sciences, and from the Strathclyde Business School.

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The early transmission dynamics of H1N1 pandemic influenza in the United Kingdom

Ghani, Azra C and Baquelin, Marc and Griffin, Jamie T. and Flasche, Stefan and Pebody, R.G. and Albert Jan, Van Hoek and Cauchemez, Simon and Hall, Ian M. and Donnelly, Christl A. and Robertson, Christopher and White, Michael T. and Barrass, Iain and Fraser, Christophe and Bermingham, Alison and Truscott, James and Ellis, Joanna and Jenkins, Helen E. and Kafatos, George and Garske, Tini and Harris, Ross and McMenamin, J. and Hawkins, Colin and Phin, Nick and Charlett, André and Zambon, Maria and Edmunds, W. John and Catchpole, Mike and Leach, Steve and White, Peter and Ferguson, Neil M. and Coooper, Ben S. (2010) The early transmission dynamics of H1N1 pandemic influenza in the United Kingdom. PLOS Currents: Influenza, RRN1130.

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Abstract

We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).