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Four scenarios for the future of the pharmaceutical industry

Bradfield, Ron M. and El-Sayed, Hany (2009) Four scenarios for the future of the pharmaceutical industry. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 21 (2). pp. 195-212. ISSN 0953-7325

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Abstract

Pharmaceutical companies are facing several major interrelated challenges, the most strategic being the decline in R&D productivity resulting in empty product pipelines to replace products nearing patent expiry. A common response has been mergers and acquisition of competitors and biotechnology firms, but rather than resolving the problems, this has created new ones. While biotechnology promises to reshape the pharmaceutical industry, it too faces challenges: the industry as a whole is unprofitable and there is uncertainty regarding market acceptance of its products. This paper examines the current issues in the two industries, and describes a scenario process resulting in the development of a set of scenarios depicting four possible future paths along which the pharmaceutical industry may develop over the next 15 years.

Item type: Article
ID code: 19935
Keywords: pharmaceutical industry, future, scenarios, new products, Pharmacy and materia medica
Subjects: Medicine > Pharmacy and materia medica
Department: Strathclyde Business School > Strategy and Organisation
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
    Date Deposited: 27 May 2010 17:41
    Last modified: 12 Mar 2012 11:13
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/19935

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