Greenhalgh, D. and AlFwzan, W. and , SaudiArabian Government (Funder) (2009) An improved otimistic threestage model for the spread of HIV amongst injecting intravenous drug users. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems  Series A, 2009. pp. 286299. ISSN 10780947

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Abstract
We start off this paper with a brief introduction to modeling Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) amongst sharing, injecting drug users (IDUs). Then we describe the mathematical model which we shall use which extends an existing model of the spread of HIV and AIDS amongst IDUs by incorporating loss of HIV infectivity over time. This is followed by the derivation of a key epidemiological parameter, the basic reproduction number R0. Next we give some analytical equilibrium, local and global stability results. We show that if R0 >e 1 then the disease will always die out. For R0 > 1 there is the diseasefree equilibrium (DFE) and a unique endemic equilibrium. The DFE is unstable. An approximation argument shows that we expect the endemic equilibrium to be locally stable. We next discuss a more realistic version of the model, relaxing the assumption that the number of addicts remains constant and obtain some results for this model. The subsequent section gives simulations for both models confirming that if R0 >e 1 then the disease will die out and if R0 > 1 then if it is initially present the disease will tend to the unique endemic equilibrium. The simulation results are compared with the original model with no loss of HIV infectivity. Next the implications of these results for control strategies are considered. A brief summary concludes the paper.
Item type:  Article 

ID code:  16826 
Keywords:  hiv, aids, infectivity, equilibrium analysis, stability analysis, global stability, Medicine (General), Mathematics, Discrete Mathematics and Combinatorics, Analysis, Applied Mathematics 
Subjects:  Medicine > Medicine (General) Science > Mathematics 
Department:  Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics 
Depositing user:  Mrs Carolynne Westwood 
Date Deposited:  22 Mar 2010 16:34 
Last modified:  17 Jun 2015 16:04 
URI:  http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/16826 
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