Strathprints Home | Open Access | Browse | Search | User area | Copyright | Help | Library Home | SUPrimo

Bayes geometric scaling model for common cause failure rates

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2010) Bayes geometric scaling model for common cause failure rates. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 95 (2). pp. 70-76. ISSN 0951-8320

Full text not available in this repository. (Request a copy from the Strathclyde author)

Abstract

This paper proposes a mathematical model to associate key operational, managerial and design characteristics of a system with the system's susceptibility towards common cause failure (CCF) events. The model, referred to as the geometric scaling (GS) model, is a mathematical form that allows us to investigate the effect of possible system modifications on risk. As such, the presented methodology results in a CCF model with a strong decision-making character. Based on a Bayesian framework, the GS model allows for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, the update of prior uncertainty in the light of operational data and the coherent use of observations coming from different systems. From a CCF perspective these are particularly useful model features, because CCF events are rare; hence, the operational data available is sparse and is characterised by considerable uncertainty, with databases typically containing events from nominally identical systems from different plants. The GS model also possesses an attractive modelling feature because it significantly decreases the amount of information elicited from experts required for quantification.

Item type: Article
ID code: 15417
Keywords: common cause failures, failure rate, epistemic uncertainty, system defences, Bayesian update, expert judgment, Management. Industrial Management, Applied Mathematics, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Subjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management
Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Mrs Caroline Sisi
    Date Deposited: 22 Jan 2010 17:51
    Last modified: 05 Sep 2014 00:16
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/15417

    Actions (login required)

    View Item