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Ocjena rizika nije upravljanje rizikom

Baracskai, Z. and Dörfler, V. and Velencei, J. (2007) Ocjena rizika nije upravljanje rizikom. Strategijski menadzment, 12 (1-2). pp. 15-17. ISSN 0354-8414

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Abstract

Osnovni problem poslovnog rizika se najčešće sužava na ocjenu rizika. U gorem slučaju na pokušaj mjerenja rizika. Smatramo da je mjerenje nemoguće, a ocjena je jednostavna, što i ilustriramo jednim primjerom poslovne banke. U tom primjeru, pomoću DoctuS sistema baziranog na znanju, koristimo 600 logičkih pravila za ocjenu rizika davanja kredita. Rješenje upravljanja rizikom nije u izboru kriterija i njihovom mjerenju, već u "ako...onda" logičkim pravilima. To je jednostavno i korisno rješenje, no u radu ipak diskutiramo doprinos ocjene upravljanju. The fundamental problem of business risk is usually reduced to risk evaluation; in a worst case to an attempt to measuring risk. We consider that measurement is impossible and evaluation is simple. To illustrate this, we present a case of business banking; in this case we use 600 logical rules to evaluate the loan risk regarding particular applicants. The solution of risk management is not in the criteria selection and their measurement but in the 'if... then' logical rules. This is a simple and very useful solution but in paper we discuss the contribution of risk evaluation to risk management.