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Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with scenario methodology to help identify surprises, disruptions and discontinuities

Burt, G. (2007) Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with scenario methodology to help identify surprises, disruptions and discontinuities. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74 (6). pp. 731-749. ISSN 0040-1625

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Abstract

The scenario literature has limited discussion on the process of identifying the systemic conditions that could create disruption and/or discontinuity. This paper focuses on the integration of Christensen's theory of disruption and system analysis with the scenario methodology to develop a framework that provides an understanding of the underlying systemic conditions that create disruption and/or discontinuity. The framework is developed from a recent scenario case study to show the process of integrating these three theories and approaches. The case study reveals the systemic conditions inherent in the UK energy industry and how these conditions may portend discontinuity.

Item type: Article
ID code: 13744
Keywords: scenarios, disruption, discontinuity, predetermined elements, system-in-use, system analysis, systemic lock-in, resource dependency, Management. Industrial Management, Business and International Management, Applied Psychology, Management of Technology and Innovation
Subjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management
Department: Strathclyde Business School > Strategy and Organisation
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Ms Hilde Ann Quigley
    Date Deposited: 13 Jan 2010 16:32
    Last modified: 04 Sep 2014 22:09
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/13744

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