Picture of scraped petri dish

Scrape below the surface of Strathprints...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs. Explore world class Open Access research by researchers at Strathclyde, a leading technological university.

Explore

Probabilistic model for contamination of egg dishes with Salmonella spp. made from shell eggs produced on the island of Ireland

Kelly, L.A. and Murchie, L. and Xia, B. and Whyte, P. and Madden, R.H. and , Safefood (Funder) (2009) Probabilistic model for contamination of egg dishes with Salmonella spp. made from shell eggs produced on the island of Ireland. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 135 (3). pp. 187-192. ISSN 0168-1605

[img]
Preview
PDF (strathprints013388.pdf)
strathprints013388.pdf

Download (255kB) | Preview

Abstract

A quantitative model was constructed to estimate the probability that a serving of food containing eggs produced on the island of Ireland is contaminated with Salmonella spp. The model is based on the prevalence of contaminated eggs at the time of lay and a set of parameters which describe the pooling of eggs in the home and in catering situations. Both external and internal contamination of the eggs by Salmonella spp. was considered. The model estimates that there is a 90% chance that the probability of a serving of food being contaminated is between 0.0043% and 0.038%. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that egg prevalence drives this low probability and that, at the current level of egg prevalence at the time of lay, pooling of eggs has a minor effect. These results indicate the importance of maintaining the low prevalence of contaminated eggs at the time of lay to minimise the risk of human cases of salmonellosis from consumption of eggs.