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Probabilistic model for contamination of egg dishes with Salmonella spp. made from shell eggs produced on the island of Ireland

Kelly, L.A. and Murchie, L. and Xia, B. and Whyte, P. and Madden, R.H. and , Safefood (Funder) (2009) Probabilistic model for contamination of egg dishes with Salmonella spp. made from shell eggs produced on the island of Ireland. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 135 (3). pp. 187-192. ISSN 0168-1605

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Abstract

A quantitative model was constructed to estimate the probability that a serving of food containing eggs produced on the island of Ireland is contaminated with Salmonella spp. The model is based on the prevalence of contaminated eggs at the time of lay and a set of parameters which describe the pooling of eggs in the home and in catering situations. Both external and internal contamination of the eggs by Salmonella spp. was considered. The model estimates that there is a 90% chance that the probability of a serving of food being contaminated is between 0.0043% and 0.038%. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that egg prevalence drives this low probability and that, at the current level of egg prevalence at the time of lay, pooling of eggs has a minor effect. These results indicate the importance of maintaining the low prevalence of contaminated eggs at the time of lay to minimise the risk of human cases of salmonellosis from consumption of eggs.

Item type: Article
ID code: 13388
Keywords: quantitative exposure assessment, salmonella, eggs, ireland, infection, medical research, statistics, Medicine (General), Mathematics, Statistics, Food Science, Microbiology, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Subjects: Medicine > Medicine (General)
Science > Mathematics
Social Sciences > Statistics
Department: Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
Depositing user: Mrs Ann Lynch
Date Deposited: 11 Nov 2009 14:44
Last modified: 27 Mar 2015 03:04
URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/13388

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