Picture of wind turbine against blue sky

Open Access research with a real impact...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs.

The Energy Systems Research Unit (ESRU) within Strathclyde's Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering is producing Open Access research that can help society deploy and optimise renewable energy systems, such as wind turbine technology.

Explore wind turbine research in Strathprints

Explore all of Strathclyde's Open Access research content

Estimating current injectors in Scotland and their drug-related death rate by sex, region and age-group via Bayesian capture-recapture methods

King, R. and Bird, S.M. and Hay, G. and Hutchinson, S.J. (2009) Estimating current injectors in Scotland and their drug-related death rate by sex, region and age-group via Bayesian capture-recapture methods. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 18 (4). pp. 341-359. ISSN 0962-2802

[img] PDF (strathprints013380.pdf)
strathprints013380.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only

Download (150kB) | Request a copy from the Strathclyde author

Abstract

Using Bayesian capture-recapture methods, we estimate current injectors in Scotland in 2003, and, thereby, injectors' drug-related death rates for the period 2003-2005. Four different data sources are considered [Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) database, hospital admissions, social enquiry reports, and drug misuse database reports by General Practices or Drug Treatment Agencies] which provide covariate information on sex, region (Greater Glasgow versus elsewhere in Scotland) and age group (15-34 years and 35+ years). We quantified Scotland's current injectors in 2003 at 27,400 (95% highest probability density interval: 20,700-32,100) by incorporating underlying model uncertainty in terms of the possible interactions present between data sources and/or covariates. The posterior probability was 72% that Scotland had more current injectors in 2003 than in 2000. Detailed comparison with 2000 gave evidence of importantly changed numbers of current injectors for different covariate classes. In addition, and of particular social interest, is the estimation of injectors' drug-related death rates. Expert information was used to construct upper and lower bounds on the number of drug-related deaths pertaining to injectors, which were then used to provide bounds on injectors' drug-related death rates. Failure to incorporate expert information could result in over-estimation of drug-related death rates for subclasses of injectors.